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Süper Lig Oct 9, 2026

Galatasaray
vs
Kasimpasa

Model probabilities · Not financial advice

WHY THE EDGE HOUSE

Transparent methodology

Clear models. No black boxes.

Historical evidence

Based on real data, not opinions.

Measurable performance

Track results. Evaluate over time.

HOW IT WORKS

From data to evidence.

  1. 01

    Model

    We estimate probabilities with a Poisson model of goals per team, built on historical data.

  2. 02

    Publish

    We publish each probability before the match. It is recorded and cannot be changed.

  3. 03

    Track

    We record every outcome, right or wrong, and measure performance.

  4. 04

    Learn

    We evaluate the record. The model only changes by versions, with human approval.

TRACK RECORDLIVE

View full track record

What we said. What happened.

A transparent record of our published predictions with real outcomes.

Real matches. Real results. No opinions.

Sep 13 · La LigaReal Sociedad vs Atlético de MadridAway 43%0–3Sep 14 · La LigaVillarreal vs Real BetisHome 53%1–2Sep 15 · La LigaRayo Vallecano vs EspanyolAway 37%2–1Sep 15 · La LigaAlavés vs ValenciaAway 39%0–1Sep 15 · La LigaElche vs Real MadridAway 68%2–3Sep 16 · La LigaAtlético de Madrid vs OsasunaHome 68%4–0Sep 16 · La LigaRC Deportivo vs SevillaHome 42%0–1Sep 16 · La LigaBarcelona vs Racing de SantanderHome 74%7–2Sep 17 · La LigaReal Betis vs GetafeHome 47%1–0Sep 17 · La LigaMálaga vs VillarrealAway 58%1–3Sep 18 · La LigaEspanyol vs ElcheHome 59%1–3Sep 19 · La LigaOsasuna vs Rayo VallecanoHome 46%1–1Sep 19 · La LigaAthletic Club vs AlavésHome 58%0–0Sep 19 · La LigaCelta de Vigo vs Racing de SantanderHome 42%5–0Sep 19 · La LigaSevilla vs BarcelonaAway 54%1–3Sep 20 · La LigaGetafe vs MálagaHome 57%1–0Sep 20 · La LigaAtlético de Madrid vs Real MadridHome 40%2–1Sep 20 · La LigaRC Deportivo vs Real BetisHome 44%1–1Sep 20 · La LigaVillarreal vs LevanteHome 63%3–1Sep 20 · La LigaValencia vs Real SociedadHome 40%2–3
285
Published
Across 11 leagues
60
Resolved
So far: La Liga only
53.3%
Hit rate
Favorite was right
0.278
Brier Score
n = 60 · Lower is better
Model0.278
Random0.333

Equivalent on the 0–2 scale: 0.555 (random: 0.667)

Model poisson_v1.0 · Oct 5, 2026

HISTORICAL EVALUATION

Probabilities, evaluated.

We evaluate the model against real historical results in a walk-forward backtest: each prediction only uses data available before that match.

Learn more about our methodology →
Historical backtest · not the live track record

Calibration plot

La Liga · 2020-21 → 2024-25 · 1,900 matches · walk-forward

0.00.00.20.20.40.40.60.60.80.81.01.0Predicted probabilityObserved frequency5–10% · n=120 · 7.6% → 10.0%10–15% · n=273 · 12.9% → 13.6%15–20% · n=443 · 17.6% → 15.3%20–25% · n=957 · 22.9% → 21.6%25–30% · n=1363 · 27.3% → 28.1%30–35% · n=566 · 32.2% → 30.6%35–40% · n=391 · 37.6% → 38.4%40–45% · n=370 · 42.4% → 43.0%45–50% · n=327 · 47.5% → 47.1%50–55% · n=231 · 52.3% → 55.0%55–60% · n=226 · 57.2% → 57.1%60–65% · n=154 · 62.4% → 63.6%65–70% · n=103 · 67.2% → 74.8%70–75% · n=80 · 72.3% → 72.5%75–80% · n=48 · 77.8% → 79.2%80–85% · n=35 · 81.8% → 71.4%ModelPerfect calibration

Each match contributes three points (home, draw, away), grouped in 5% bins. Bars are 95% intervals and dot size reflects the number of points. Bins with fewer than 30 points are omitted.

These are historical results, not published predictions. See the live track record

View data
BinPointsPredictedObserved
5–10%1207.6%10.0%
10–15%27312.9%13.6%
15–20%44317.6%15.3%
20–25%95722.9%21.6%
25–30%1,36327.3%28.1%
30–35%56632.2%30.6%
35–40%39137.6%38.4%
40–45%37042.4%43.0%
45–50%32747.5%47.1%
50–55%23152.3%55.0%
55–60%22657.2%57.1%
60–65%15462.4%63.6%
65–70%10367.2%74.8%
70–75%8072.3%72.5%
75–80%4877.8%79.2%
80–85%3581.8%71.4%

Built on data. Not opinions.

The probabilities published by The Edge House are estimates generated by our quantitative models and historical data. They do not represent certainty and do not guarantee outcomes.

Football is a high-variance sport. Injuries, tactical decisions, lineups and other factors can alter any prediction.

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