Track Record
Historical performance of the quantitative model. Full transparency.
Model v7.4_pos_and_shrink · Aug 8, 2026, 10:00 PM
Global metrics
The track record will activate as published matches are resolved.
Model Certainty
Confirmation by probability range. When the model says 70%, does it hit 70% of the time?
Accuracy represents the percentage of historical predictions that matched the actual outcome.
Recent predictions
No resolved predictions yet.
Predictions and their outcomes will appear here as matches are played.
How to read the track record
Brier Score measures how calibrated the probability is. A perfect model would have Brier = 0. Ours compares against industry baselines (Brier < 0.20 is considered good).
Confirmation indicates what percentage of predicted events occurred. It is not a "win rate" — it is a mathematical performance measure.
Model Certainty is the strictest metric: it verifies that when the model predicts X% probability, the event actually occurs X% of the time. It is key to knowing whether the probabilities are reliable or just mathematical noise.
About these metrics
The history shown is based on predictions published to date. Past performance does not guarantee future results. A 70% estimated probability will be wrong 30% of the time — that's the statistical reality.
Brier Score measures how close probabilities are to reality. Lower is better. Range from 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst).
Learn how it works →