LIVE TRACK RECORDPublished before kickoffUpdated Oct 5, 2026
285
Published
Predictions
60
Resolved
53.3%
ConfirmationConfirmation indicates what percentage of predicted events occurred. It is not a "win rate" — it is a mathematical performance measure.
The favorite was right
Resolved so far: La Liga only
Learn how metrics workCalibration
Model certainty is the strictest metric: it verifies that when the model predicts X% probability, the event actually occurs X% of the time. It is key to knowing whether the probabilities are reliable or just mathematical noise.When the model says X%, does it happen about X% of the time?
PredictedObservedLive · 1X2 probabilities of resolved matches (3 per match)
- 0–9%Predicted 6%Insufficient samplen = 3
- 10–19%Predicted 16%Observed 4%n = 25
- 20–29%Predicted 26%Observed 27%n = 73
- 30–39%Predicted 35%Observed 40%n = 30
- 40–49%Predicted 45%Observed 38%n = 24
- 50–59%Predicted 56%Observed 58%n = 12
- 60–69%Predicted 65%Insufficient samplen = 8
- 70–79%Predicted 75%Insufficient samplen = 4
- 80–89%Predicted 85%Insufficient samplen = 1
Ranges with fewer than 10 points are shown faded.
Calibration becomes more informative as resolved predictions accumulate.
Historical backtestSee historical calibrationRecent predictions
Latest 10 resolved matches. Hits and misses. Resolved so far: La Liga only.
DateCompetitionMatchPublished probabilityResultOutcome